Hundreds of cellphones were raised in the air Saturday, Dec. 2, 2017, as supporters tried to capture a picture of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as he made his rounds at Semiahmoo Secondary. (Aaron Hinks photo)

PBO sets budget baseline for campaign vows with tools, deficit projections

Parliament’s spending watchdog estimates that federal books will be in the red by $20.7 billion this year

Parliament’s spending watchdog is predicting years of deficits deeper than the government has laid out.

The numbers are in a report the parliamentary budget office says should set the baseline for the campaign promises parties will dangle in front of voters this fall.

WATCH: Five highlights in the 2019 federal budget

The PBO estimates that federal books will be in the red by $20.7 billion this year and bottom out at a deficit of $23.3 billion the year after, before improving to a $12.5-billion deficit by 2022.

The numbers are better than the PBO predicted in April but worse than the figures in Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s pre-election budget that forecast deficits between $19.8 billion and $12.1 billion.

The estimates and a new online costing tool are part of PBO efforts to prepare for its role as an independent auditor of each party’s spending plans in the upcoming election campaign. The watchdog office plans to post cost estimates of campaign promises as the parties announce them before and during the campaign.

The report is likely to make it more difficult for any party to cook its own projections and also makes it difficult for any party to promise a quick return to balanced budgets.

Still, the PBO offers one possibility for making up some of the shortfall in a separate report detailing how much the government loses to tax evasion, to overseas tax havens, and through tax avoidance through legal loopholes that contravene the spirit of income-tax laws.

The difference between what is collected and what could be collected absent tax-evasion schemes is known as the “tax gap.”

The Canada Revenue Agency, in a report earlier in the week, pegged the lost take in federal corporate income taxes in 2014 at between $9.4 billion and $11.4 billion. But by looking at electronic transfers into and out of Canada, as well as special tax filings, the budget office gives a “hypothetical” estimate that $25 billion might have been lost in corporate tax revenue.

What the PBO was more certain of is that money flowing between Canada and countries known to be tax havens was “disproportionately large.”

“One thing is clear — we need greater transparency on corporate finances and financial flows, including who owns what companies,” said Toby Sanger, executive director of Canadians for Tax Fairness, in a statement.

The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Cranbrook Bandits senior team wraps up season

The Bandits ended their district playoffs play with a 6-3 loss against the Twins

The last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

Gwynne Dyer It has been suggested that Boris Johnson (who becomes the… Continue reading

B.C. removes personal limits for bringing home out-of-province alcohol

Previous relgulations placed limits on the amount of liquor that B.C. residents could bring home

Know it All: Summer entertainment in Kimberley Cranbrook

Cranbrook Arts The featured artist this month in the gallery at Cranbrook… Continue reading

COTR name new women’s volleyball head coach

Bryan Fraser will come in as the new coach of the women’s Avalanche squad for the 2019/20 season

VIDEO: Young couple found dead in northern B.C. had been shot, police say

Chynna Noelle Deese of the U.S. and Lucas Robertson Fowler of Australia were found along Highway 97

VIDEO: Man found dead near B.C. teens’ truck could be linked to a double homicide

RCMP said they are looking for Kam McLeod, 19, and Bryer Schmegelsky, 18, of Port Alberni

Latest plan is to fly trapped fish by helicopter over Big Bar slide

Multi-pronged plan set in motion to freesalmon blocked by landslide in the Fraser River

Family of missing B.C. senior with dementia frustrated with situation, heartened by community support

Nine days since Grace was last seen the question remains: ‘How can an 86-year-old just disappear?’

At the Cranbrook Public Library

Mike Selby Keith G. Powell tells the fascinating story of Jimmy Peever… Continue reading

Unsealed record suggests U.S. man convicted of murdering Vancouver Island couple left DNA on zip tie in 1987

William Talbott is set to be sentenced Wednesday in the murders of Jay Cook and Tanya Van Cuylenborg

Okanagan Air Cadet challenges gender-exclusive haircut policy

Haircut regulation inspires challenge around gender identity

VIDEO: Bystander training gains traction as tool to prevent sexual harassment, violence

Julia Gartley was sexually assaulted after an event, and no one stepped in to help

Two brands of ice cream sandwiches recalled due to presence of metal

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency issued a recall on Iceberg and Originale Augustin brands

Most Read