One of dozens of new Geoscan maps by Gavin Manson. (Screenshot/Black Press Media files)

Mapping of Canadian coasts showing where climate change to hit hardest this century

The expectation of rising sea levels has already been documented this year

A federal government geoscientist has developed fresh maps of coastlines showing where flooding and erosion caused by climate change are likely to inflict maximum damage this century.

The mapping effort led by Gavin Manson has taken into account factors like the disappearance of sea ice, rising waves and the makeup of the shoreline.

The latest version of the CanCoast map has combined six key factors to create visual ratings of ”coastal sensitivity” on the three oceans.

Manson said in an interview Wednesday that when you start to consider how wave height rises due to a lack of sea ice or the slope of the shore, it can make a major difference in erosion and flooding.

“It includes a whole lot more information on factors that affect the physical sensitivity of Canada’s coasts,” he said from the Geological Survey of Canada office at the Bedford Institute of Oceanography in Halifax.

The expectation of rising sea levels has already been documented in the Changing Climate Report Ottawa released in April for large portions of Atlantic Canada, the Beaufort Sea, the Fraser River lowlands and northern British Columbia.

In parts of Atlantic Canada where coastal land is sinking as seas rise, the ocean is predicted to be an average of between 75 centimetres to one metre higher by the end of the century — increasing flood risk during storms.

However, Manson points out that quantifying coastal sensitivity takes the analysis further.

The nature of the shoreline — whether it’s beach, gravel or a hard rocky shore — is part of the mix of six variables the geological mapmakers have scored.

Another factor now included in the maps is how the melting of ice in the ground beneath permafrost leaves coasts susceptible to more erosion.

As the ground sinks, the oceans gain in energy, tearing away at the shore. “In the 2090s, there’s much less in the way of sea ice, and there’s more waves,” said Manson.

The researcher says the areas of highest sensitivity are on the northern coasts facing the Beaufort Sea, where bright red colours on the maps signal the elevated risk.

“Things are getting much worse in that area …. It’s one of the areas with the highest increase in sensitivity, and it extends further east into the Arctic archipelago than we would have expected.”

Factors such as melting ground ice and loose materials along the shore are key factors along the coast facing the Arctic Ocean, he adds.

Parts of Hudson Bay are also in the red zone, as are portions of southeastern Cape Breton and tiny Sable Island, hundreds of kilometres off Nova Scotia’s coast.

In the case of Cape Breton, the factors that raise sensitivity include the likelihood of reduced ice on the inland Bras d’Or lakes, which would result in more tidal action against the shorelines.

The mapping data is publicly available for downloading and study on a service called Geoscan.

Manson says the CanCoast maps are being used by all levels of government, as well as coastal engineers and industry consultants.

The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Historic Theatre Reborn — The Armond will rise again

Three local men have purchased the Armond, and work is underway to transform the decrepit 78-year-old building into a multi-purpose community arts centre.

Province looking at steps to dissolve Jumbo resort municipality

Disincorporating municipality will likely require a legislative change, according to the province

Coldest Night of the Year returns to Cranbrook in February

Canadian Mental Health Association Kootenays plans to raise $20K

Almost 20,000 parking tickets issued by Interior Health at hospitals in 2019

In 2018, pay parking in Interior Health hospitals totalled $5.3 million of their $2.2-billion budget

New autonomous technology program debuting at College of the Rockies

The College of the Rockies is launching a new two-year Autonomous Systems… Continue reading

VIDEO: WHO says China virus not global health emergency

The decision came after Chinese authorities moved to lock down three cities on Thursday

Risk to Canadians of Chinese coronavirus low, health minister says

Five or six people are being monitored in Canada, including at least one in Vancouver

Uber, Lyft approved for ride-hailing in Lower Mainland

Kater Technologies Inc.’s application was rejected

VIDEO: ‘Porn’ answer was a wrong one for Surrey family on ‘Feud’ game show

Surrey’s Rams competed on the TV show Wednesday night

Abandoned boats left to freeze on Okanagan Lake cause chaos

Over the last week weather conditions have caused three separate incidents

B.C. teacher witnesses coronavirus terror in Shanghai: ‘Everyone is on edge’

Face masks and hand sanitizer ‘sell out’ as 9 SARS-like illness cases confirmed in the city

B.C.-based firefighting plane crashes in Australia, killing three

Three people are confirmed dead in the crash in New South Wales

Living near major roads linked to higher risk of dementia, Parkinson’s: UBC study

Green space could mitigate some of the risks, researchers found

Most Read