British Prime Minister Boris Johnson answers questions during a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019. Britain and the European Union reached a new tentative Brexit deal on Thursday, hoping to finally escape the acrimony, divisions and frustration of their three-year divorce battle. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson answers questions during a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019. Britain and the European Union reached a new tentative Brexit deal on Thursday, hoping to finally escape the acrimony, divisions and frustration of their three-year divorce battle. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

Canadian business needs Brexit certainty but Johnson plan only a start: observers

The outcome of the unusual weekend vote in London is itself far from predictable

Experts warn that a post-Brexit United Kingdom will present Canadian business with tremendous uncertainty about billions of dollars worth of trade and investments, no matter how the British Parliament votes on Saturday.

The outcome of the unusual weekend vote in London is itself far from predictable, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson struggles to get support for a controversial agreement that he reached Thursday with the European Union.

But observers say even a Johnson success would only provide a starting point for further rounds of difficult negotiations between London and Brussels and eventually between Canada and the United Kingdom.

Fasken partner Clifford Sosnow says the primary benefit of Johnson’s plan is that it would provide for 14 months to 36 months of negotiations on a new trade deal for two of Canada’s biggest export and investment markets.

“The major concern for everybody is the instability and the instability from not knowing what the business relationship will be, what the investment relationship will be,” says Sosnow, who provides strategic advice about international trade and investments at one of Canada’s largest business law firms.

He adds that open talks between the United Kingdom and Canada would be allowed only after the U.K. leaves the European Union on Oct. 31, if Johnson’s schedule is passed by the British House of Commons.

ALSO READ: Brexit hard-liner Boris Johnson wins race to become UK’s next prime minister

The United Kingdom by itself, represents one of Canada’s top five destinations for investments and top 10 markets for goods and services.

It has also been a gateway for Canadian companies that do business in the European Union, which is Canada’s second- or third-biggest trading partner after the United States and China, depending on the measure.

About 40 per cent of Canadian trade in merchandise with the EU goes through United Kingdom, says Achim Hurrelmann, a political scientist and co-director of Carleton University’s Centre for European Studies in Ottawa.

Without a good free-trade deal between Brussels and London, companies may reconsider “whether they want to stay in the United Kingdom or … go to Dublin (Ireland), or to France or to Germany or the Netherlands.”

“To some extent, that has already happened but my impression is that most companies have been staying put and observing and waiting (to see) what is happening,” Hurrelmann says.

He says that Johnson’s proposed deal would provide more time to sort out the U.K.’s trade relationship with the EU but also with Canada.

“Canada wants to have a trade deal with the U.K. and the U.K. wants to have one with Canada as well,” Hurrelmann says.

“But the question, of course, is will we have time to actually work that out properly or will that have to be very rushed after a no-deal Brexit.”

Mark Camilleri, a Brussels-based Canadian at the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association, says he thinks it’s fair to say “that having any deal is better than having no deal” if only to reduce uncertainty.

He says that having no U.K.-EU. deal “it would potentially be very destabilizing for businesses, including Canadian businesses that are not just based in the U.K. but also based in the EU that are trading to the U.K.”

But Camilleri noted the British Parliament has rejected Theresa May’s proposals on three occasions so ’one has to hold one’s breath as to whether or not (Johnson’s deal) will get through.”

David Paddon, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

The latest EKASS survey confirms a steady decline in substance use among EK youth over the years. (image compilation via Pixabay)
Latest survey shows steady decline in adolescent substance use over the years

Starting in 2002, the survey has been conducted every two years to monitor changes in substance use patterns, attitudes and behaviors amongst East Kootenay youth.

The Aquatic Centre at Western Financial Place.
Cranbrook Aquatic Center to close temporarily

The annual shutdown of the Aquatic Center at Western Financial Place will begin earlier than scheduled this year and does not have a defined end date at this time.

Residents line up outside the Vernon Recreation Complex for their COVID-19 vaccine Saturday, June 5. (Jennifer Smith - Morning Star)
No appointments necessary for first dose COVID-19 vaccine: Interior Health

People can just show up at clinics, register on the spot and get the shot

1914
It happened this week in 1914

June 6 -12: Compiled by Dave Humphrey from the archived newspapers held at the Cranbrook History Centre and Archives

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry on Thursday, June 10, mentioned Grand Forks among two other COVID “hot spots” in B.C. Photo: Screenshot - YouTube COVID-19 BC Update, June 10, 2021
PHO Henry says West Kootenay city is a COVID ‘hot spot’ in B.C.

There are 11 cases of COVID-19 in the Grand Forks local health area, according the BC CDC

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participates in a plenary session at the G7 Summit in Carbis Bay, England on Friday June 11, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Canada donating 13M surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses to poor countries

Trudeau says the government will pay for 87 million shots to be distributed to poor countries

Premier John Horgan speaks as provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry, right, and health minister Adrian Dix look on during a press conference to update on the province’s fall pandemic preparedness plan during a press conference from the press theatre at Legislature in Victoria, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
B.C. officials to provide details on Step 2 of COVID reopening plan Monday

Step 2 could allow for larger gatherings and a resumption of recreational travel

Indigenous Services Minister Marc Miller is seen during a news conference, Wednesday May 19, 2021 in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Indigenous child-welfare battle heads to court despite calls for Ottawa to drop cases

Feds are poised to argue against two Canadian Human Rights Tribunal rulings

The Great Ogopogo Bathtub Race has been held in Summerland as a fundraising event. Do you know which Canadian city introduced this sport? (Black Press file photo)
QUIZ: A summer’s day at the water

How much do you know about boats, lakes and water?

Two-year-old Ivy McLeod laughs while playing with Lucky the puppy outside their Chilliwack home on Thursday, June 10, 2021. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress)
VIDEO: B.C. family finds ‘perfect’ puppy with limb difference for 2-year-old Ivy

Ivy has special bond with Lucky the puppy who was also born with limb difference

A million-dollar ticket was sold to an individual in Vernon from the Lotto Max draw Friday, June 11, 2021. (Photo courtesy of BCLC)
Lottery ticket worth $1 million sold in Vernon

One lucky individual holds one of 20 tickets worth $1 million from Friday’s Lotto Max draw

“65 years, I’ve carried the stories in my mind and live it every day,” says Jack Kruger. (Athena Bonneau)
‘Maybe this time they will listen’: Survivor shares stories from B.C. residential school

Jack Kruger, living in Syilx territory, wasn’t surprised by news of 215 children’s remains found on the grounds of the former Kamloops Indian Residential School

A logging truck carries its load down the Elaho Valley near in Squamish, B.C. in this file photo. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chuck Stoody
Squamish Nation calls for old-growth logging moratorium in its territory

The nation says 44% of old-growth forests in its 6,900-square kilometre territory are protected while the rest remain at risk

Most Read